Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Covering the crisis: Media coverage of the economic crisis and citizens’ economic expectations

  • Original Article
  • Published:
Acta Politica Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The 2008–2009 worldwide economic crisis serves as a backdrop to this study of the dynamics of citizens’ economic expectations. Economic expectations are identified as crucial for a range of political attitudes. This study is the first to consider how information affects evaluations in times of a severe crisis, as prior research of information effects on economic evaluations took place in more stable economic times. It links citizens’ news exposure and the content of economic news coverage with changes in prospective economic assessments. Drawing on a three-wave panel study and on a media content analysis between the panel waves, we thus provide a dynamic assessment of media influences on changes in economic evaluations. The results demonstrate that media exposure strongly affected expectations regarding the future development of the national economic situation, while being largely unrelated to personal economic expectations. We furthermore show that media dependency increases the magnitude of the media effect. We discuss the disconnect between personal and national economic evaluations with regard to mass-mediated economic information.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Figure 1
Figure 2

Similar content being viewed by others

Notes

  1. See, for example, 2009 Annual Report (Amsterdam: Dutch National Bank, 2010).

  2. Several studies have been carried out on the relationship between the real, objective economy and its portrayal in the news (Goidel and Langley, 1995; Nadeau et al, 2000). However, we refrain from discussing these studies here, and only note that there is little evidence for a one-on-one real and unbiased reflection of the state of the economy in the news. However, as this article focuses on the impact of news coverage on public assessments, we are less interested to what degree news media accurately reflected the severity of the economic downturn here.

  3. Early research distinguished between the effects of television and newspaper dependency (for example, Becker and Whitney, 1980), but later studies formulated the expectations more in terms of the general media dependency and the interaction with exposure (Mutz, 1992).

  4. A clear topic change always defines a new news story (for example, from Middle East to the EU referendum). The news story has to be longer than two sentences. For tv news, headlines, summaries, teasers, announcements of other programmes and commercials within the newscast have not been coded. In newspapers, the individual editorial news item (not advertisements), including accompanying picture(s), or individual pictures or graphics or cartoons with or without text, constitutes an item. There is no minimum length for a news story to be considered an item.

  5. These scores apply to the first period only. In the second period only one coder continued to code the material, but under close supervision of the principal investigators of the study to ensure comparability with the coding of the first period.

  6. We also coded the amount of economic news stories in each of the two periods. Initial analyses, however, revealed that the amount of economic news did not alter the effects of the tone of the news. Therefore, we refrain from further discussing this content analytical indicator.

  7. We make a very strict distinction between complete and partial questionnaires. A questionnaire counts as completed if and only if not a single answer is missing.

  8. The 267 w1 respondents who did not participate in w2 did not significantly differ in terms of education, occupational status, age, income or household size from the 1127 persons who completed both questionnaires.

  9. The specific fieldwork days were: 29 November – 4 December 2009 (w1), 13–17 December 2009 (w2), 13–19 February 2009 (w3).

  10. In light of the participation of these 1174 respondents in the first two samples, this means that the w2–w3 attrition rate was (1293–976)/1293=25 per cent, and the overall (w1–w3) sample loss (1394–976)/1394=30 per cent.

  11. We, however, do acknowledge that the issue of causality between government approval and economic evaluations is not uncontested. In attempting to provide a conservative model of media effects, we decided to use government approval as a control variable. We note that our results are substantially very similar in a model that does not control for government approval.

  12. Alternative dynamic specifications for the model are possible. Here, we refrained from using a fixed or random effects analysis because of the limited number of waves and because we measured our key independent variables on economic news coverage before the first survey wave.

  13. This was also confirmed in analyses in which exposure to positive news was contrasted with exposure to negative news. Both terms yielded significant effects of roughly equal sizes on the dependent variable.

  14. Note however, that looking at the actual content instead of only using exposure makes a difference: replacing the weighted media content variable with an exposure measure results in insignificant results. Also the distinction that has been made between personal and national focus of media coverage is useful: replacing the national tone media variable with the personal one results in a less good prediction (first period) and even an insignificant result (second period). Using the national variable in the egocentric model does not alter the results.

  15. We note that if included here, media dependency shows to be weakly related to changes in expectations between time 2 and time 3, with people who depend on the media turning more negative regarding their personal finances. The interaction term between news exposure and tone and media dependency is not significant in either model.

References

  • Anderson, C.J., Mendes, S.M. and Tverdova, Y.V. (2004) Endogeneous economic voting: Evidence from the 1997 British election. Electoral Studies 23 (4): 683–708.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ball-Rokeach, S.J., Rokeach, M. and Grube, J.W. (1984) The Great American Values Test: Influencing Behavior and Belief through Television. New York: Free Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Becker, L.B. (1979) Measurement of gratifications. Communication Research 6 (1): 54–73.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Becker, L.B. and Withney, D.C. (1980) Effects of media dependencies. Audience assessment of government. Communication Research 7 (1): 95–120.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Berger, C.R. and Calabrese, R.J. (1975) Some explorations in initial interaction and beyond: Toward a developmental theory of interpersonal communication. Human Communication Research 1 (2): 99–112.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Blumler, J. (1979) The role of theory in uses and gratifications studies. Communication Research 6 (1): 9–36.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Boettcher, W.A. (2004) The prospects for prospect theory: An empirical evaluation of international relations applications of framing and loss aversion. Political Psychology 25 (3): 331–362.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Burns, P. and Gimpel, J. (2000) Economic insecurity, prejudicial stereotypes, and public opinion on immigration policy. Political Science Quarterly 115 (2): 201–226.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Clarke, H.D. and Stewart, M.C. (1994) Prospections, retrospections, and rationality: The ‘bankers’ model of presidential approval reconsidered. American Journal of Political Science 38 (4): 1104–1123.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Conover, P.J., Feltman, S. and Knight, K. (1986) Judging inflation and unemployment: The origins of retrospective evaluations. The Journal of Politics 48 (3): 565–588.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • De Boef, S. and Kellstedt, P.M. (2004) The political (and economic) origins of consumer confidence. American Journal of Political Science 48 (4): 633–649.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Delli Carpini, M.X. (2004) Mediating democratic engagement: The impact of communications on citizens’ involvement in political and civic life. In: L.L. Kaid (ed.) Handbook of Political Communication Research. Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum.

    Google Scholar 

  • De Vreese, C.H. and Boomgaarden, H.G. (2005) Projecting EU referendums: Fear of immigration and support for European integration. European Union Politics 6 (1): 59–82.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • De Vreese, C.H., Boomgaarden, H.G. and Semetko, H.A. (2011) (In)direct framing effects: The effects of news media framing on public support for Turkish membership in the European Union. Communication Research 38 (2): 179–205.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • De Vreese, C.H. and Semetko, H.A. (2004) News matters: Influence on the vote in the Danish 2000 euro referendum campaign. European Journal of Political Research 43 (5): 699–722.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Donsbach, W. (1999) Sieg der Illusion. Wirtschaft und Arbeitsmarkt in der Wirklichkeit und in den Medien. In: E. Noelle-Neumann, H.M. Kepplinger and W. Donsbach (eds.) Kampa: Meinungsklima und Meinungswirkung im Bundestagswahlkampf 1998. Munich: Alber.

    Google Scholar 

  • Downs, A. (1957) An Economic Theory of Democracy. New York: Harper and Row.

    Google Scholar 

  • Duch, R. (2007) The Economic Vote: How Political and Economic Institutions Condition Election Results. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Elvestad, E. and Blekesaune, A. (2008) Newspaper readers in Europe. A multilevel study of individual and national differences. European Journal of Communication 23 (4): 425–447.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Evans, G. and Andersen, R. (2006) The political conditioning of economic perceptions. The Journal of Politics 68 (1): 194–207.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Eveland, W.P. (2001) The cognitive mediation model of learning from the news: Evidence from nonelection, off-year election, and presidential election contexts. Communication Research 28 (5): 571–601.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Eveland, W.P., Shah, D.V. and Kwak, N. (2003) Assessing causality: A panel study of motivations, information processing and learning during campaign 2000. Communication Research 30 (4): 359–386.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fiske, S.T. (1980) Attention and weight in person perception: The impact of negative and extreme behavior. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 38 (6): 889–906.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fogarty, B.J. (2005) Determining economic news coverage. International Journal of Public Opinion Research 17 (2): 149–172.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gabel, M. (1998) Public support for European integration: An empirical test of five theories. The Journal of Politics 60 (2): 333–354.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goidel, R.K. and Langley, R.E. (1995) Media coverage of the economy and aggregate economic evaluations: Uncovering evidence of indirect media effects. Political Research Quarterly 48 (2): 313–328.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Haller, H.B. and Norpoth, H. (1997) Reality bites: News exposure and economic opinion. Public Opinion Quarterly 61 (4): 555–575.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hetherington, M.J. (1996) The media's role in forming voters’ national economic evaluations in 1992. American Journal of Political Science 40 (2): 372–395.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hovland, C.I., Janis, I.L. and Kelley, H.H. (1953) Communication and Persuasion: Psychological Studies of Opinion Change. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ju, Y. (2008) The asymmetry in economic news coverage and its impact on public perception in South Korea. International Journal of Public Opinion Research 20 (2): 237–249.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kahneman, D. and Tversky, A. (1979) Prospect theory, an analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica 47 (2): 263–291.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kahneman, D. and Tversky, A. (1984) Choices, values and frames. American Psychologist 39 (4): 341–350.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Key Jr, V.O. and Cummings, M. (1966) The Responsible Electorate. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Kiewiet, D.R. (1983) Macroeconomics and Micropolitics: The Electoral Effects of Economic Issues. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kinder, D.R., Adams, G.S. and Gronke, P.W. (1989) Economics and politics in the 1984 presidential election. American Journal of Political Science 33 (2): 491–515.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kinder, D.R. and Sears, D.O. (1981) Prejudice and politics: Symbolic racism versus racial threats to the good life. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 40 (3): 414–431.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kluegel, J.R. and Smith, E.R. (1986) Beliefs about Inequality: Americans’ Views of What is and What Ought to be. New York: Aldine de Gruyter.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kramer, G. (1983) The ecological fallacy revisited: Aggregate versus individual-level findings on economics and elections, and sociotropic voting. American Political Science Review 77 (1): 92–111.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lauf, E. (2001) The vanishing young reader: Sociodemographic determinants of newspaper use in Europe, 1980–1998. European Journal of Communication 16 (2): 233–243.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lewis-Beck, M.S. (1988) Economics and Elections: The Major Western Democracies. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lewis-Beck, M.S. and Paldam, M. (2000) Economic voting: An introduction. Electoral Studies 19 (2–3): 113–122.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lewis-Beck, M.S. and Stegmaier, M. (2000) Economic determinants of electoral outcomes. Annual Review of Political Science 3: 183–219.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Loges, W.E. and Ball-Rokeach, S.J. (1993) Dependency relations and newspaper readership. Journalism Quarterly 70 (3): 602–614.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Markus, G.B. (1979) Analyzing Panel Data. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Mayda, A.M. (2006) Who is against immigration? A cross-country investigation of individual attitudes toward immigrants. The Review of Statistics and Economics 88 (3): 510–530.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McLeod, D., Kosicki, G.M. and McLeod, J. (2002) Resurveying the boundaries of political communication effects. In: J. Bryant and D. Zillmann (eds.) Media Effects. Advances in Theory and Practice. Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum.

    Google Scholar 

  • Morton, T. and Duck, J. (2001) Communication and health beliefs. Mass and interpersonal influences on perceptions of risk to self and others. Communication Research 28 (5): 602–626.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mosley, P. (1984) ‘Popularity functions’ and the role of the media: A pilot study of the popular press. British Journal of Political Science 14 (1): 117–129.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mutz, D.C. (1992) Mass media and the depoliticization of personal experience. American Journal of Political Science 36 (2): 483–508.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nadeau, R., Niemi, R.G. and Amato, T. (2000) Elite economic forecasts, economic news, mass economic expectations, and voting intentions in Great Britain. European Journal of Political Research 38 (1): 135–170.

    Google Scholar 

  • Nadeau, R., Niemi, R.G., Fan, D.P. and Amato, T. (1999) Elite economic forecasts, economic news, mass economic judgments, and presidential approval. Journal of Politics 61 (1): 109–135.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Paldam, M. and Nannestad, P. (2000) What do voters know about the economy? A study of Danish data, 1990–1993. Electoral Studies 19 (2&3): 363–391.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pratto, F. and John, O.P. (1991) Automatic vigilance: The attention-grabbing power of negative social information. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 61 (3): 380–391.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sanders, D. (2000) The real economy and the perceived economy in popularity functions: How much do voters need to know? A study of British data, 1974–1997. Electoral Studies 19 (2&3): 275–294.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sanders, D., Clarke, H., Stewart, M. and Whiteley, P. (2001) The economy and voting. Parliamentary Affairs 54 (4): 789–802.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sanders, D., Marsh, M. and Ward, H. (1993) The electoral impact of press coverage of the British economy, 1979–1987. British Journal of Political Science 23 (2): 175–210.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schuck, A.R.T. and De Vreese, C.H. (2006) Between risk and opportunity. News framing and its effects on public support for EU enlargement. European Journal of Communication 23 (1): 5–32.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sears, D.O. and Freedman, J.L. (1967) Selective exposure to information: A critical review. Public Opinion Quarterly 31 (2): 194–213.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shah, D., Watts, M., Domke, K., Fan, D. and Fibison, M. (1999) Television news, real world cues, and changes in the public agenda 1984–1996. Journal of Politics 61 (4): 914–943.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sheafer, T. (2008) The media and economic voting in Israel. International Journal of Public Opinion Research 20 (1): 33–52.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Soroka, S. (2006) Good news and bad news: Asymmetric responses to economic information. The Journal of Politics 68 (2): 372–385.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Van der Eijk, C., Franklin, M.N., Demant, F. and Van der Brug, W. (2007) The endogenous economy: ‘Real’ economic conditions, subjective economic evaluations and government support. Acta Politica 42 (1): 1–22.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Van Raaij, W.F. (1989) How consumers react to advertising. International Journal of Advertising 8 (3): 261–273.

    Google Scholar 

  • Walgrave, S. and Van Aelst, P. (2006) The contingency of the mass media's political agenda setting power: Toward a preliminary theory. Journal of Communication 56 (1): 88–109.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Weatherford, M.S. (1978) Economic conditions and electoral outcomes: Class differences in the political response to recession. American Journal of Political Science 22 (4): 917–938.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Weatherford, M.S. (1983) Economic voting and the ‘symbolic politics’ argument: A reinterpretation and synthesis. American Political Science Review 77 (1): 158–174.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wlezien, C., Franklin, M.N. and Twiggs, D. (1997) Economic perceptions and vote choice: Disentangling the endogeneity. Political Behavior 19 (1): 7–17.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu, H.D., Stevenson, R.L., Chen, H. and Guner, Z.N. (2000) The conditioned impact of recession news: A time-series analysis of economic communication in the United States. International Journal of Public Opinion Research 14 (1): 19–36.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zaller, J.R. (1992) The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Zucker, H.G. (1978) The variable nature of new media influence. In: B.D. Rubin (ed.) Communication Yearbook 2. New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Amsterdam School of Communication Research, University of Amsterdam, Kloveniersburgwal 48, Amsterdam, 1012 CX, The Netherlands

    Hajo G Boomgaarden, Joost van Spanje, Rens Vliegenthart & Claes H de Vreese

Authors
  1. Hajo G Boomgaarden
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Joost van Spanje
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Rens Vliegenthart
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Claes H de Vreese
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Hajo G Boomgaarden.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Boomgaarden, H., van Spanje, J., Vliegenthart, R. et al. Covering the crisis: Media coverage of the economic crisis and citizens’ economic expectations. Acta Polit 46, 353–379 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1057/ap.2011.18

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/ap.2011.18

Keywords

Search

Navigation