Table 1 Model fit quantified as marginal likelihoods for three covariates under analysis with Bayes factors providing support for the best model (exponential density dependence) against all alternative models. Model parameters include the baseline origination and extinction rates (λ0, μ0) and the correlation parameters for origination and extinction
From: Competition and extinction explain the evolution of diversity in American automobiles
Covariate | Model | λ 0 | μ 0 | γ λ | γ μ | Marg. Likelihood | BF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Diversity | Exponential | 0.260 | 0.247 | −2.307 | −2.147 | −17,582 | - |
Diversity | Linear | 0.290 | 0.274 | −1.621 | −1.572 | −17,626 | 43 |
Oil Price | Exponential | 0.024 | 0.053 | −2.815 | −1.719 | −18,386 | 803 |
Oil Price | Linear | 0.040 | 0.076 | −5.432 | −2.038 | −18,540 | 958 |
GDP Change | Exponential | 0.206 | 0.199 | −1.779 | −1.831 | −18,704 | 1,121 |
GDP Change | Linear | 0.200 | 0.191 | −0.896 | −0.814 | −18,800 | 1,217 |
