^aDepartment of Government, University of Essex, Colchester, Essex CO4 3SQ, UK. E-mail: sanders@essex.ac.uk

Abstract

It is widely believed that the Conservatives can significantly improve their chances in the next general election by 'moving to the centre of the political spectrum'. This paper uses data from the 2005 British Election Study to simulate both the direct and indirect consequences of such a move. The simulations show that the Conservatives would undoubtedly benefit from moving to the ideological centre-ground of British politics. However, they also indicate that a move to the centre, on its own, would probably add only 5 percentage points to the Conservatives' share of the vote in 2009/10 — clearly insufficient to ensure a Conservative victory. One way in which the Conservatives could garner the additional votes they need is to target the large number of public sector workers who have been alienated from Labour by its emphasis on public sector micro-management.