Abstract
The office of the directly elected mayor has proved popular among national politicians as a means of modernising and strengthening local government but has proved less popular with local politicians and voters. A total of 51 referendums have been held since 1998. These have provided an opportunity for voters to approve or reject mayoral executives to run their local authorities. In a clear majority of cases the referendum was defeated. Another characteristic of these referendums has been the relatively low turnout, boosted only when the referendum has been timed to coincide with a general election or when all-postal voting has been used. Only 17 areas have introduced mayors and in two of these the post was subsequently abolished following a second referendum vote. It is largely urban-based authorities that have elected mayors. A total of 44 mayoral elections have been held since 2000 and in each of these the winner has been determined by the Supplementary Vote method. Low turnout has again been a characteristic of these elections despite each contest attracting a relatively large number of candidates, although not many women candidates have stood. Labour has won most of the elections although Independents have also performed well. Although it was expected that the voting system might see winning candidates emerge with strong mandates, the reality is that few mayors have been elected with an absolute majority of votes cast. A close examination of eligible second votes shows that a large number are not transferred to either of the two runoff candidates. This suggests extensive voter ignorance about the system being used to select mayors.
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Notes
The data analysis excludes three referendums, Stoke-on-Trent (October 2008), Doncaster (May 2012), and Hartlepool (November 2012), which asked voters whether they wanted to reverse a previous decision to establish a directly elected mayor. A majority of voters in Stoke and Hartlepool decided to abolish the office but in Doncaster the vote favoured retention. Details of these referendums are contained in Appendix A.
There are 13 cases where a public petition prompted a referendum and in five of those (Bedford, Mansfield, Stoke-on-Trent, Torbay and Salford) a ‘Yes’ vote resulted. In 2002, the Secretary of State instructed Southwark to hold a referendum.
Although alphabetic bias is not examined in this article, we have established its effect in local elections in Britain (Rallings et al, 2009; Webber et al, 2012) and there is no reason to assume that mayoral elections are immune to its effects.
However, the reason SV might produce ‘larger majorities’ than AV is because under SV all losing candidates are eliminated simultaneously and their votes are, where appropriate, redistributed to the two remaining candidates. Under AV this process goes ‘step by step’ (eliminating only one candidate on the first step) and, more crucially, accepts that it is of no use continuing redistributing votes from losing candidates once one candidate has reached the threshold of an absolute majority. By continuing the count AV could in theory produce equally ‘visible’ majorities.
The experience in Norway has been different (Christensen and Aars, 2010, pp. 829–831). A total of 48 mayoral elections using SV saw 15 candidates elected after the first count and a further 12 captured an absolute majority following the transfer of second votes. The Norwegian data also shows a relatively smaller number of candidates contested these elections (range 3−8) and that more voters supported the two leading candidates than was the case in England.
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Appendices
Appendix A
Referendum votes to abolish mayoral office and replace it with an alternative method of running the council
In Stoke-on-Trent the referendum question read:
Are you in favour of the proposal for Stoke-on-Trent City Council to be run in a new way, which includes a councillor, who will be elected by the councillors of Stoke-on-Trent to lead the Council and the community which it serves?
The referendum was held on 23 October 2008. A total of 21 231 (59.3 per cent) voted ‘Yes; and 14 592 voted ‘No’. Turnout was 19.2 per cent.
In Doncaster the referendum question read:
How would you like Doncaster to be run:
By a mayor who is elected by voters? This is how the council is run now.
Or
By a leader who is an elected councillor chosen by a vote of the other elected councillors? This would be a change from how the council is run now.
The referendum was held on 3 May 2012. A total of 42 196 (62 per cent) voted to retain the mayor with 25 879 (38 per cent) voting against. Turnout was 30.5 per cent.
In Hartlepool the referendum question read:
How would you like Hartlepool Council to be run?
By a mayor who is elected by voters (this is how the council is run now).
Or
By one or more Committees made up of elected Councillors (this would be a change from how the council is run now).
The referendum was held on 15 November 2012. A total of 5177 (41.3 per cent) voted to retain the mayor with 7366 (58.7 per cent) voting against. Turnout was 17.9 per cent
Appendix B
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Rallings, C., Thrasher, M. & Cowling, D. Mayoral referendums and elections revisited. Br Polit 9, 2–28 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1057/bp.2013.14
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/bp.2013.14