Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Economic indicators and electoral volatility: economic effects on electoral volatility in Western Europe, 1950–2013

  • Original Article
  • Published:
Comparative European Politics Aims and scope

Abstract

Economic voting theory assumes that on an individual level voters react to economic indicators to hold incumbents responsible for the performance of the economy. On an aggregate level, this would imply that there is an association between economic indicators and levels of volatility since voters have to switch parties if they want to punish or reward political actors. Based on a time-series cross-section analysis of the Pedersen Index for Western European countries in the period 1950–2013, we do indeed observe an association between economic indicators and levels of volatility. This effect furthermore grows stronger over time, and it is assumed that this is rendered possible by processes of partisan dealignment. The analysis suggests that European electorates are significantly more likely to shift parties in response to economic downturn now than they were a few decades ago.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Figure 1
Figure 2

Similar content being viewed by others

Notes

  1. Data for GDP comes from the Total Economy Database (The Conference Board, 2013), providing comparative economic data for a wide set of countries from 1950 onwards. Yearly data on unemployment and inflation comes from the OECD database. For inflation, we include the logged inflation rate in the models.

  2. Following the formula proposed by Bélanger and Gélineau (2010, p. 98), which we modify slightly to ensure a one-year time lag for the economic indicators: ρ=[ρ (t−2)*(12−σ (t))/12]+[ρ (t−1)*(σ (t)/12], where ρ is the annual economic indicator, σ is the election month and t is the election year. Data for GDP comes from the Total Economy Database, providing comparative economic data for a wide set of countries from 1950 onwards.

  3. The Bormann and Golder (2013) data run until 2011; several online election sources were consulted to complete the data on district magnitude for elections after 2011.

  4. It is important to point out that the results presented are robust to controlling for the impact of systems in the data set that are either presidential (Cyprus) or semi-presidential (France and Portugal).

  5. This exact specification is also used by Kayser and Wlezien (2011) in their aggregate-level analysis of the impact of partisanship on economic voting.

  6. Although all the indicators related to the electoral and party system are clearly closely related, zero-order correlations between these indicators (Least squares index of disproportionality, ENEP e−1, average district magnitude (ln) and electoral system change) are not too high. The Pearson correlation between district magnitude and the least squares index is −0.527, but other correlations are 0.2 or lower.

  7. Effects presented are quantities of interest from 1000 simulated observations, obtained through the Clarify-command in Stata (King et al, 2000). Simulations based on OLS Huber White estimation.

References

  • Allison, P.D. (2009) Fixed Effects Regression Models. London: Sage.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Bartolini, S. and Mair, P. (1990) Identity, Competition, and Electoral Availability. The Stabilisation of European Electorates 1885–1985. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Beck, N. (2001) Time-series-cross-section data: What have we learned in the past few years? Annual Review of Political Science 4: 271–293.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Beck, N. and Katz, R.N. (1995) What to do (and not to do) with time-series-cross-section data. American Journal of Political Science 89(3): 634–647.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bélanger, E. and Gélineau, F. (2010) Does perceived competence matter? Political parties and economic voting in canadian federal elections. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties 20(1): 83–101.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bellucci, P., Costa Lobo, M. and Lewis-Beck, M.S. (2012) Economic crisis and elections: The European periphery. Electoral Studies 31(3): 469–471.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bengtsson, A. (2004) Economic voting: The effects of political context, volatility and turnout on voters’ assignment of responsibility. European Journal of Political Research 43(5): 749–767.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Berglund, F., Holmberg, S., Schmitt, H. and Thomassen, J. (2005) Party identification and party choice. In: J. Thomassen (ed.) The European Voter. A Comparative Study of Modern Democracies. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, pp. 105–123.

    Google Scholar 

  • Birch, S. (2003) Electoral Systems and Political Transformation in Post-Communist Europe. Basingstoke, UK: Palgrave Macmillan.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Bischoff, C.S. (2013) Electorally unstable by supply or demand? An examination of the causes of electoral volatility in advanced industrial democracies. Public Choice 156(3): 537–561.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Blais, A. and Gschwend, T. (2010) Strategic defection across elections, parties and voters. In: R.J. Dalton and C.J. Anderson (eds.) Citizens, Context and Choice. How Context Shapes Citizens’ Electoral Choice. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, pp. 176–196.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Bloom, H.S. and Price, H.D. (1979) Voter response to short-run economic conditions: The asymmetric effect of prosperity and recession. American Political Science Review 69(4): 1240–1454.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bormann, N.-C. and Golder, M. (2013) Democratic electoral systems around the world, 1946–2011. https://files.nyu.edu/mrg217/public/elections.html, accessed 15 July 2013.

  • Bowler, S., Lanoue, D.J. and Savoie, P. (1994) Electoral systems, party competition, and strength of partisan attachment: Evidence from three countries. Journal of Politics 56(4): 991–1007.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chappell, H.W.J. and Veiga, L.G. (2000) Economics and elections in Western Europe: 1960–1997. Electoral Studies 19(2/3): 183–197.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Crewe, I. and Denver, D. (1985) Electoral Change in Western Democracies: Patterns and Sources of Electoral Volatility. London: Croom Helm.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dalton, R.J. (1984) Cognitive mobilization and partisan dealignment in advanced industrial democracies. Journal of Politics 46(1): 264–284.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dalton, R.J., McAllister, I. and Wattenberg, M. (2000) The consequences of partisan dealignment. In: R.J. Dalton and M. Wattenberg (eds.) Parties Without Partisans. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, pp. 37–63.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dassonneville, R. and Lewis-Beck, M.S. (2013) Economic policy voting and incumbency: Unemployment in Western Europe. Political Science Research and Methods 1(1): 53–66.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dassonneville, R. and Lewis-Beck, M.S. (2014) Macroeconomics, economic crisis and electoral outcomes: A national European pool. Acta Politica 49(4): 372–394.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Drukker, D.M. (2003) Testing for serial correlation in linear panel-data models. The Stata Journal 3(2): 168–177.

    Google Scholar 

  • Drummond, A.J. (2006) Electoral volatility and party decline in Western democracies: 1970–1995. Political Studies 54(3): 628–647.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Duch, R.M. and Stevenson, R.T. (2008) The Economic Vote: How Political and Economic Institutions Condition Electoral Results. New York: Cambridge University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Epperly, B. (2011) Institutions and legacies: Electoral volatility in the postcommunist world. Comparative Political Studies 44(7): 829–853.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Erikson, R.S. and Wlezien, C. (2012) The Timeline of Presidential Elections. How Campaigns Do (And Do Not) Matter. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Evans, G. and Tilley, J. (2011) How parties shape class politics: Explaining the decline of the class basis of party support. British Journal of Political Science 42(01): 137–161.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Evans, G. and Tilley, J. (2012) The depoliticization of inequality and redistribution: Explaining the decline of class voting. Journal of Politics 74(4): 963–976.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Franklin, M.N. (2004) Voter Turnout and the Dynamics of Electoral Competition in Established Democracies Since 1945. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Franklin, M., Mackie, T. and Valen, H. (2009) Electoral Change. Responses to Evolving Social and Attitudinal Structures in Western Countries. Colchester, UK: ECPR Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Freire, A. and Costa Lobo, M. (2005) Economics, ideology and vote: Southern Europe, 1985–2000. European Journal of Political Research 44(4): 493–518.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gallagher, M. (1991) Proportionality, disproportionality and electoral systems. Electoral Studies 10(1): 33–51.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gallagher, M. (2013) Election indices dataset. http://www.tcd.ie/Political_Science/staff/michael_gallagher/ElSystems/index.php, accessed 15 July 2013.

  • Gallagher, M., Laver, M. and Mair, P. (2011) Representative Government in Modern Europe. New York: McGraw-Hill.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hibbs, D.A. (1987) The American Political Economy. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hooghe, M. and Kern, A. (2013) Party membership and closeness and the development of trust in political institutions an analysis of the European social survey, 2002–2010. Party Politics, advance in publication 27 January 2013 doi:10.1177/1354068813509519.

  • Katz, R.S., Rattinger, H. and Pedersen, M.N. (1997) The dynamics of European party systems. European Journal of Political Research 31(1): 83–97.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kayser, M.A. and Wlezien, C. (2011) Performance pressure: Patterns of partisanship and the economic vote. European Journal of Political Research 50(3): 365–394.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kennedy, P. (2012) From unpopular socialists to the popular party: The Spanish general election of 2011. West European Politics 35(3): 673–681.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Key, V.O. (1966) The Responsible Electorate. New York: Vintage.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • King, G., Tomz, M. and Wittenberg, J. (2000) Making the most of statistical analyses: Improving interpretation and Presentation. American Journal of Political Science 44(2): 341–355.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lewis-Beck, M.S. (2006) Does economics still matter? Econometrics and the vote. Journal of Politics 68(1): 208–212.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lewis-Beck, M.S. and Stegmaier, M. (2000) Economic determinants of electoral outcomes. Annual Review of Political Science 3: 183–219.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lipset, S.M. and Rokkan, S. (1967) Party Systems and Voter Alignments: Cross-National Perspectives. New York: Free Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mackie, T.T. and Rose, R. (1991) The International Almanac of Electoral History. London: Macmillan.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Mainwaring, S. and Zoco, E. (2007) Political sequences and the stabilization of interparty competition: Electoral volatility in old and new democracies. Party Politics 13(2): 155–178.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mair, P. (1993) Myths of electoral change and the survival of traditional parties. European Journal of Political Research 24(2): 121–133.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mair, P. (2005) Democracy Beyond Parties. Irvine (UC): Center for the Study of Democracy.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mair, P. (2008) Electoral volatility and the Dutch party system: A comparative perspective. Acta Politica 43(2/3): 235–253.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nadeau, R., Lewis-Beck, M.S. and Bélanger, E. (2013) Economics and elections revisited. Comparative Political Studies 46(5): 551–573.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nannestad, P. and Paldam, M. (1997) The grievance asymmetry revisited: A micro study of economic voting in Denmark, 1986–1992. European Journal of Political Economy 13(1): 81–99.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ocaña, F.A. (2007) An approximation problem in computing electoral volatility. Applied Mathematics and Computation 192(2): 299–310.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pedersen, M.N. (1979) The dynamics of European party systems: Changing patterns of electoral volatility. European Journal of Political Research 7(1): 1–26.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Powell, E.N. and Tucker, J.A. (2014) Revisiting electoral volatility in post-communist countries: New data, new results and new approaches. British Journal of Political Science 44(1): 123–147.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Powell, B.G. and Whitten, G.D. (1993) A cross-national analysis of economic voting: Taking account of the political context. American Journal of Political Science 37(2): 391–414.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Roberts, K.M. and Wibbels, E. (1999) Party systems and electoral volatility in Latin America: A test of economic, institutional, and structural explanations. American Political Science Review 93(3): 575–590.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schäfer, A. and Streeck, W. (2013) Politics in the Age of Austerity. Cambridge, MA: Polity Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sikk, A. (2005) How unstable? Volatility and the genuinely new parties in Eastern Europe. European Journal of Political Research 44(3): 391–412.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Singer, M. (2011) Who says ‘it’s the economy?’ Cross-national and cross-individual variation in the salience of economic performance. Comparative Political Studies 44(3): 284–312.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Söderlund, P. (2008) Retrospective voting and electoral volatility: A nordic perspective. Scandinavian Political Studies 31(2): 217–240.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tavits, M. (2005) The development of stable party support: Electoral dynamics in post-communist Europe. American Journal of Political Science 49(2): 283–298.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • The Conference Board. (2013) Total economy database. Total GDP, in millions of 1990 US$ (converted at Geary Khamis PPPs). http://www.conference-board.org/data/economydatabase/, accessed 15 July 2013.

  • Thomassen, J. and Rosema, M. (2009) Party identification revisited. In: J. Bartle and P. Bellucci (eds.) Political Parties and Partisanship: Social Identify and Individual Attitudes. London: Routledge, pp. 42–59.

    Google Scholar 

  • van Biezen, I., Mair, P. and Poguntke, T. (2012) Going, going, … gone? The decline of party membership in contemporary Europe. European Journal of Political Research 51(1): 24–56.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • van der Brug, W., van der Eijk, C. and Franklin, M. (2007) The Economy and the Vote: Economic Conditions and Elections in Fifteen Countries. New York: Cambridge University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Vasilopoulou, S. and Halikiopoulou, D. (2013) In the shadow of the grexit: The Greek election of 17 june 2012. South European Society and Politics 18(4): 523–542.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Walczak, A., van der Brug, W. and de Vries, C. (2012) Short and long term determinants of party choice: Differences across generations. Electoral Studies 31(2): 273–284.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wiggins, V. and Poi, B. (2013) How do I test for panel-level heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation? http://www.stata.com/support/faqs/statistics/panel-level-heteroskedasticity-and-autocorrelation/, accessed 15 June 2013.

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centre for Citizenship and Democracy, University of Leuven, Parkstraat 45, box 3602, Leuven, 3000, Belgium

    Ruth Dassonneville & Marc Hooghe

Authors
  1. Ruth Dassonneville
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Marc Hooghe
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Ruth Dassonneville.

Appendix

Appendix

Table A1

Table A1 Descriptive statistics of independent variables
Full size table

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Dassonneville, R., Hooghe, M. Economic indicators and electoral volatility: economic effects on electoral volatility in Western Europe, 1950–2013. Comp Eur Polit 15, 919–943 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1057/cep.2015.3

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/cep.2015.3

Keywords

Search

Navigation