¹International Monetary Fund

Abstract

The article develops a model of exchange rate regime choice centered on the tradeoff between internal price stability and external competitiveness. The model allows for institutional costs of altering exchange rate arrangements. The main implication of the model is a nonlinear relationship between the rate of inflation and the choice of regime for the next period. The model also suggests that a major inflationary shock, like the one to which all Central and Eastern European economies were subject when they allowed prices to be determined by the market, should give rise to a tightening of the exchange rate regime, followed by a gradual introduction of more flexibility as inflation subsides. A series of regressions on a sample of thirteen Central and Eastern European economies yield results consistent with the hypothesis.