Economic Research Service, US Department of Agriculture, 1800 M St, NW, Room 5062, Washington, DC 20036-5831, USA. E-mail: sosborne@ers.usda.gov

Abstract

This paper examines transmission between changes in (a) world trade prices for meat and Russian exchange rates and (b) Russian consumer meat prices. We find that for both trade prices and the exchange rate, the transmission is low. This indicates that Russia's integration into world meat markets is poor. The economic cost to Russia of poor transmission is that at any point in time, the country is not at its optimal volumes and mix of agricultural trade that would maximise the gains from trade. The transmission estimates are therefore important for forecasting Russian agricultural production and trade.