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Table of Contents

December 2004, Volume 47, Number 4

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Surviving Uncertainty


Upfront

Editorial: What Next?
Wendy Harcourt & Arthur Muliro
Abstract \| Full text \| PDF			1

Introduction: Surviving uncertainty
Barbara Heinzen
Abstract \| Full text \| PDF			4

The World is not Makeable
Abstract \| Full text \| PDF			9

Thematic Section: Where Do Public Interest Scenarios Fit in?

Thinking about the Future: Trends and scenarios in Latin America
Francisco Sagasti
Abstract \| Full text \| PDF			15

Preparing the Ground? Scenarios and political change in South Africa
Graham Galer
Abstract \| Full text \| PDF			26

What We Know and What We Believe: Lessons from cognitive psychology
Ron Bradfield
Abstract \| Full text \| PDF			35

A Missing Step in the Governance Process
Steven A Rosell
Abstract \| Full text \| PDF			43

Dialogue: Learning As We Go

From Dialogues to Understanding: Building business scenarios
Arden Brummell
Abstract \| Full text \| PDF			50

Multi-stakeholders with Multiple Perspectives: HIV/AIDS in Africa
Pieter Fourie
Abstract \| Full text \| PDF			54

Searching for Flamingos in Israel: The pitfalls of mixing scenarios and negotiations
Gary Sussman
Abstract \| Full text \| PDF			60

Mapping Public and Private Scenario Planning: Lessons from regional projects
Jay Ogilvy & Erik Smith
Abstract \| Full text \| PDF			67

High Ambitions and Scarce Resources in Public Interest Organizations
Diane Scearce & Katherine Fulton
Abstract \| Full text \| PDF			73

Working from Vision: A key to success
José Carrillo
Abstract \| Full text \| PDF			78

Local/Global Encounters: Scenarios in Action

Kenya: Sharing the news
Betty Maina & Katindi Sivi
Abstract \| Full text \| PDF			82

Tanzania: Tutafika
Aidan Eyakuze
Abstract \| Full text \| PDF			87

Uganda: Turning points, surprises and overcoming suspicion
Abstract \| Full text \| PDF			91

Colombia: Speaking up
Adam Kahane
Abstract \| Full text \| PDF			95

Nigeria: Private sector creates a public space
Cho Khong
Abstract \| Full text \| PDF			99

SADC: Making sense of uncertainty in Southern Africa
Garth Le Pere
Abstract \| Full text \| PDF			103

The 'Colourful Tienen': Who joins? Who learns?
Jos Motmans
Abstract \| Full text \| PDF			110

Success is Extinction: Scenario Planning in INGOs
Neil MacDonald
Abstract \| Full text \| PDF			115

Book Shelf

Literature on Scenarios
Abstract \| Full text \| PDF			121

Window on the World

Mapping out Public Interest Scenarios
Abstract \| Full text \| PDF			125

Who's Who

Who's Who
Abstract \| Full text \| PDF			128

Last Word

Changing Minds, Changing Feelings, Changing Times
Abstract \| Full text \| PDF			133