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Future Studies and Policy Design: Reflections on a 20-year experience at FORO Nacional Internacional in Peru

  • Local/Global Encounters
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Abstract

Future studies are methodological tools that have affected policy design over the past decades. In Peru, these tools have developed hand in hand with a cycle of institutional volatility in a context of socioeconomic and political turmoil. While the context has improved, the relevance of future studies in relation with policy design is still questionable. New approaches developed and implemented by key actors have created spaces for discussion, application and development of future studies. As globalization advances, socioeconomic issues become more complex. Future studies and the institutions working on them will be key in facing coming challenges.

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Notes

  1. See the five volumes of América en el Año 2000, Lima, Ediciones de la Sociedad Interamericana de Planificación/Instituto Peruano de Estudios de Desarrollo, 1969.

  2. The programme is described in ‘Long-term Development Options and Strategies for Peru: A programme of studies and research’, Lima, GRADE, October 1984. For some of the results see Sagasti (1990); Sagasti and Garland (1985) and McLauchlan de Arregui and Acosta de Quijandría (1988).

  3. Interview with Claudio Herzka, 20 June 2014.

  4. Interview with Gonzalo Alcalde, 23 May 2014.

  5. For a description of the methodology of Agenda: PERÚ see Sagasti et al. (1997) and for a complete downloadable collection of Agenda: PERÚ reports (mostly in Spanish, with a few in English) see www.agendaperu.org.pe.

  6. For information on the National Accord see acuerdonacional.pe.

  7. The design for a strategic planning centre built on the results of the final report of Agenda: PERÚ and was carried out at FORO by Francisco Sagasti with the assistance of Mario Bazán. Fernando Prada, a FNI staff member, was seconded for a year to the Prime Minister’s Office to work as part of the CEPLAN design team. After an initial design was completed, the new Prime Minister appointed Fernando Villarán, a former minister of labour, to revise and refine the design of CEPLAN and begin the political consultation process that led to its approval by Congress two years later.

  8. Interview with Gonzalo Alcalde, 23 May 2014.

  9. The course material is available in CD/DVD form at FNI and was widely disseminated.

  10. Abriendo Caminos was a nine-part TV series shot on location all over the country and broadcast by the national public television station and more than 30 regional and local stations.

  11. The Regional Council Agreement was signed on 11 May 2009 in ruling Number 001-2009-GRJ/CEEEyMROF-GRJ – ‘Derogation and approval of the regulation on organization and functions of the Regional Government of Junin’. This ruling was published in the official Journal (el Peruano) on 21 May 2009 through the regional regulation No.094-2009-GRJ/CR.

  12. Eventually, the scenarios produced by this exercise won first prize in the IAF’s competition.

References

  • de Aljovín, Cristóbal (1999) Visión del Peru: Historia y Perspectivas. Lima: Agenda: PERÚ/FORO Nacional Internacional.

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  • McLauchlan de Arregui, Patricia and Laura Acosta de Quijandría (1988) Peru 2010: El futuro ya no es como antes. Lima: GRADE.

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  • Sagasti, Francisco (1990) ‘From Global to National Comprehensive Models: A developing country perspective on global modelling in transition’, Journal of the Operational Research Society 41 (3): 185–190.

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  • Sagasti, Francisco and Gonzalo Garland (1985) Crisis, Knowledge and Development: A review of long-term perspective on science and technology for development. Lima: GRADE, January.

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  • Velazco, Otoniel (2012) INP 50 años, http://www.inpbodasdeoro.com/inicio.html, accessed 20 July 2014.

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Authors
  1. Mario Bazán
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  2. Pasko Kisic
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  3. Jorge Chávez
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Additional information

Details the experiences of trying to institutionalize foresight work in Peru over the past decades and the current opportunities that could be built upon

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Bazán, M., Kisic, P. & Chávez, J. Future Studies and Policy Design: Reflections on a 20-year experience at FORO Nacional Internacional in Peru. Development 56, 518–524 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1057/dev.2014.48

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/dev.2014.48

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