¹Office for National Statistics

Considers why this has occurred and the ONS response to reducing the potential for such bias in future

Historically, Office for National Statistics (ONS) early estimates of the growth of the volume of gross domestic product have tended to be revised up on average. This article considers why this has occurred and ONS's response to reducing the potential for such bias in future. It concludes that there is insufficient evidence for ONS to make an explicit aggregate level adjustment to these early estimates to anticipate potential future bias, and that there are many more fundamental reasons why it should not make such an adjustment. Instead ONS should continue to research the reasons for any bias, and seek to reduce or remove it altogether.

Full Version

The Full Text of this article can be found on the National Statistics website(http://www.statistics.gov.uk/elmr/07_08/downloads/elmr_jul08_youll.pdf).