Abstract
In this article I compare the results of Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) applied to a medium-sized data set on women's legislative representation in Asian and Latin American countries to those of regression analysis based on the same data set. I find that both methods are suboptimal. Explaining the outcome of high women's representation, fsQCA suggests complex configurations of conditions with low empirical coverage and high sensitivity to coding. While, not without shortcomings, OLS regression analysis performs somewhat better than fsQCA. On the one hand, this method identifies two statistically significant and substantively relevant variables (i.e. quota rules and communist regimes), which strongly increase the percentage of women deputies. On the other hand, the model's interpretation is not completely clear cut, as scholars may disagree over the relevance of the one marginally statistically and substantively significant variable, the longevity of democracy.
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Notes
Quantitative research is premised on the assumption that explanatory factors have independent impacts on outcomes, while qualitative research is case-oriented and interested in the causal mechanisms that lead to an outcome (George and Bennett, 2005).
For example, researchers could create three categories in determining a country's regime type. They could code a democracy 1, a hybrid regime .5 and a non-democracy 0.
Krook's (2010b) operationalisation yields four combinations of conditions that lead to high representation: (1) quotas, women's low status in society, low levels of development and post-conflict situations; (2) quotas, women's high status in society, high levels of development and post-conflict situations; (3) non-PR electoral systems, women's high status in society, high levels of development and post-conflict situations and (4) non-PR electoral systems, quotas, women's low status in society, high levels of development and non-post-conflict situations. In contrast, my operationalisation only triggers two configurations: (1) quotas, high women's status in society, high levels of development and post-conflict situations and (2) PR electoral systems, quotas, high women's status in society, high levels of development and post-conflict situations.
The 30 per cent threshold is based on a qualitative anchor. The cut-off point of approximate one-third women in parliament is frequently perceived as the critical mass enabling women to exert meaningful influence on politics (Krook, 2009).
The cross-over point of 20 per cent women's representation is chosen because it approximates the global mean women's representation rate, which stands at slightly above 19 per cent.
The consistency score measures the degree to which any configuration of independent variables is consistent with the outcome. The coverage rate measures the percentage of the data that is covered by the solution (Ragin, 2008).
The configurations of explanatory variables I obtained from these models were both as complex as those I obtained from the combined data set and not robust to minor alterations in the calibrations of the relevant variables. In addition, the combinations of factors that characterise the outcome, high female representation, were also characterised by low solution coverage.
In a separate model (not reported), I also tested for a possible interaction between the electoral system type and quotas. However, I find that the interactive term is neither statistically significant nor substantively relevant.
Because its communist/socialist credentials are not entirely clear, I run a separate regression analysis excluding Venezuela from the subset of countries coded communist. This change increases the magnitude of the coefficient ‘communist countries’ by an additional two percentage points. The impact of all other indicators remains unchanged.
For example, it is unclear as to whether 25, 30 or 33 per cent is a sufficiently high enough benchmark for high women's representation in parliament.
An additional weakness of QCA is that, similar to omitted variable bias in regression analysis, it is impossible to be certain that all conditions in the QCA analysis have been included. This implies that there always can be other combinations of factors that lead to the same outcome (see Seawright, 2005).
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Appendices
APPENDIX A
THE ORIGINAL DATA SET
In the table below the variables are in the following order: women's representation, education index, years democracy, the female activity rate in per cent, electoral system type, communist country, quotas, number of years women have had the right to vote.
APPENDIX B
THE FULL fsQCA OUTPUT
Algorithm: Quine-McCluskey
True: 1
— COMPLEX SOLUTION —
frequency cut-off: 1.000000
consistency cut-off: 0.854701
solution coverage: 0.231264
solution consistency: 0.954459
For the fsQCA analysis I use the following abbreviations:
edu=eduation
dem=consolidation/longevity of democracy
eco=female economic activity rate
pr=parliamentary representation
q=quota provisions
com=communist regime type
ws=women's suffrage
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Stockemer, D. Fuzzy Set or Fuzzy Logic? Comparing the Value of Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) Versus Regression Analysis for the Study of Women's Legislative Representation. Eur Polit Sci 12, 86–101 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1057/eps.2012.25
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/eps.2012.25