Abstract
How useful are polls taken a few months before a French presidential election for predicting the decisive second round ballot? We address this question from two points of view: (a) a retrospective angle based on the incumbent candidate record; and (b) a prospective and comparative perspective centred around the images of the main candidates. According to the retrospective dimension, Nicolas Sarkozy's chances of re-election appear rather bleak. His low level of approval – the lowest for an incumbent candidate during the Fifth Republic – is most likely to pave the way to the first Socialist victory since 1988. The relatively positive image of Nicolas Sarkozy, on the other hand, will possibly contribute to a tighter race than expected.
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Notes
The BVA poll was conducted by telephone between 17 and 18 November 2006 with a sample of 950 people representing the French population aged 18 years and above.
The Ipsos-Logica poll was conducted online between 4 and 10 November 2011 with a sample of 6000 people representing the French population, aged 18 years and above.
The sum of percentages is superior to 100 per cent as each respondent gives three responses out of 16 choices.
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Nadeau, R., Didier, T. & Lewis-Beck, M. Leader images and election forecasting: French presidential elections. Fr Polit 10, 11–21 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1057/fp.2011.23
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/fp.2011.23