1. ^aMetz University, ID2 Metz, Metz, France. E-mail: bruno.jerome@libertysurf.fr
2. ^bLEP-3DI Paris II University, Paris, France

Abstract

In this paper, using a Political Economy model (pooled time series), we show that voting behavior at regional elections in France is dominated by national factors. At the 2004 regional elections, the contest was marked by the government's economic and political performance, the new electoral rules, the first time the Left had been in opposition at the time of a regional election and the mid-term nature of the election. These elements are helpful in building an explanatory model that allows us to forecast the next election as well. On the basis of this model, we discuss how to make — paradoxically — regional elections in France more local.