Data, Measures and Methods

French Politics (2008) 6, 94–100. doi:10.1057/palgrave.fp.8200135

The National Front Vote and Turnout in the French Presidential Elections

Antoine Aubergera,b

  1. aCES-LAEP, University of Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, Maison des sciences économiques, 106-112 bld de l'Hôpital, 75647 Paris cedex 13, France. E-mail: auberger@univ-paris1.fr
  2. bUniversity of Paris 2 Panthéon-Assas
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Abstract

The purpose of this short paper is to build and estimate a model that explains and forecasts the vote received by the National Front at the first round of the French presidential elections (1988–2002 and 1988–2007) with local economic conditions and turnout. The model has been accurate in forecasting the elections of the past and we make ex post and ex ante forecasts taking into account the 2007 French presidential election.

Keywords:

economic voting, election forecasting, National Front, turnout, French presidential elections