TABLE 1
FROM:
Forecasting the 2007 French Presidential Election: Ségolène Royal and the Iowa Model
Michael S Lewis-Beck, Éric Bélanger and Christine Fauvelle-Aymar
BACK TO ARTICLETable 1. Iowa Model forecasts for the French presidential election, 2007a
| National model | Regional model | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vote 1 b | Vote 2 c | Vote 1 d | Vote 2 e | |
| Economy | - 6.16* | - 1.53* | ||
| (2.02) | (8.50) | |||
| Popularity | 0.248* | 1.07* | ||
| (2.23) | (14.64) | |||
| Vote 1 | 0.427* | 0.71* | ||
| (3.48) | (18.81) | |||
| Constant | 47.09 | 30.66 | 3.96 | 2.17 |
| R-sq. | 0.555 | 0.801 | 0.470 | 0.80 |
| SEE | 6.05 | 1.79 | 0.67 | 2.17 |
| N | 7 | 5 | 88 | 66 |
| Forecast | 51.5% | 52.7% | 46.44% | 51.0% |
| Actual | 36.4 | 46.9 | 36.4 | 46.9 |
| Point Error | 15.1 | 5.8 | 10.0 | 4.1 |
| Abs. Avg. Error | 3.89 | 1.14 | 3.28 | 5.43 |
a Data source: Ministère de l'Intérieur (diffusé par le Centre de données socio-politiques), INSEE for the unemployment data and IFOP for the popularity data.
b OLS estimation on national presidential election data, 1965–2002. Vote 1=first-round vote for candidates on the left (extreme left, communist, socialist, diverse left, ecologist); economy=the log of the unemployment rate, measured 3 months before (multiplied+1 if the President was on the left and - 1 if not); popularity=percentage satisfied with the President in the IFOP poll 3 months in advance (multipled+1 if the President was on the left and - 1 if not); R-sq.=coefficient of multiple determination; N=7; figures in parentheses are t-ratios; *=absolute value of t-ratio greater than 2.00; SEE=the standard error of estimate; Point error=forecast- actual 2007 result; Abs. Avg. Error=the average absolute prediction error within the sample.
c OLS estimation on presidential election data, 1965, 1974, 1981, 1988, 1995. Vote 2 is second-round vote for candidate on the left. Vote 1 defined as in footnote b above.
d Fixed effects regression estimation on regional presidential election data, 1981–2002. Vote 1 is defined as in footnote b above; economy is defined as in footnote b above; popularity is the average satisfaction with left parties (1/3 for the communists, 2/3 for the socialists), 3 months in advance.
e OLS estimation on presidential election data (1981, 1988, 1995). Vote 2 is defined as in footnote c above.
