TABLE 3
FROM:
Forecasting the 2007 French Presidential Election: Ségolène Royal and the Iowa Model
Michael S Lewis-Beck, Éric Bélanger and Christine Fauvelle-Aymar
BACK TO ARTICLETable 3. Regression diagnostics on the Iowa Model (National version)
| Not including 2007 | Including 2007 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vote 1 | Vote 2 | Vote 1 | Vote 2 | |
| Economy | - 6.16* | - 2.78 | ||
| (2.02) | (.92) | |||
| Popularity | 0.248* | 0.143 | ||
| (2.23) | (1.22) | |||
| Vote 1 | 0.427* | 0.410* | ||
| (3.48) | (4.25) | |||
| Constant | 47.09* | 30.66* | 44.10* | 31.51* |
| (15.31) | (5.56) | (13.66) | (7.49) | |
| R-sq. | 0.555 | 0.801 | 0.238 | 0.819 |
| SEE | 6.05 | 1.79 | 7.42 | 1.57 |
| N | 7 | 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Durbin–Watson | 2.06 | 1.39 | ||
| Highest cook's D | 0.27 | 0.60 | ||
*=absolute value of the t-ratio (in parentheses) is greater than 2.00.
