The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance (2004) 29, 667–678. doi:10.1111/j.1468-0440.2004.00309.x
A "New" General Theory of Population Ageing
Jean-Pierre Michel1 and Jean-Marie Robine2
- 1Geriatric Department, Geneva University Hospitals, CH1326, Thônex-Geneva, Switzerland. Email: jean-pierre.michel@hcuge.ch
- 2INSERM, Health and Demography, University of Montpellier 1, France. Email: robine@valdorel.fnclcc.fr
Abstract
The main theories of population ageing based on recent data on human longevity, life expectancy, morbidity changes, disability trends and fall in mortality show co-existing contradictory tendencies in disability and functioning. These contradictions reflect differences in geographic, cultural, socio-economic, political and medical contexts, for instance:
an increase in the survival rates of sick persons which would explain the expansion of morbidity and/or disability that is now taking place in Taiwan,
control of the progression of chronic diseases which would explain the subtle equilibrium between the fall in mortality and the increase in disability currently observed in the U.K.,
an improvement in the health status and health behaviours of the new cohorts of old people which would explain the reduction in morbidity and/or disability now found in France, Switzerland and the U.S.
