The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Issues and Practice

TABLE 5

FROM:

Insurers are not Banks: Assessing Liquidity, Efficiency and Solvency Risk Under Alternative Approaches to Capital Adequacy

Paul Kupiec and David Nickerson

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Table 5. Loan pricing and default characteristics

State Probability Par value for project A loan Par value for project B loan Payoff on project A loan Payoff on project B loan
10.05551.54.5
20.105545
30.205555
40.305555
50.205555
60.105554
70.05554.51.5
      
Market value of loan 4.704.70
Default option value (% market value) 6.386.38
Default probability 0.200.20

 Loan default distribution and risk-neutral valuation for loans, with a par (maturity) value of 5, made to a firm with either a Type A or Type B project.

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