^aDepartament de Teoria Econòmica, Facultat de Ciències Econòmiques i Empresarials, Centre d'Anàlisi Econòmica i de les Polítiques Socials (CAEPS), Universitat de Barcelona, Avda. Diagonal 690, 08034, Barcelona, Spain. E-mail: abio@ub.edu

Abstract

This paper aims to assess the long-term financial sustainability of the Spanish national health system using Generational Accounting, and investigates the effects of several financial options that governments may use to face the challenges posed by the demographic ageing process. Our results indicate, first, that population ageing will have a substantial impact on future health care expenditure, although the examination of past health expenditure trends seems to indicate that ageing is not the main force behind their growth. Second, we find that the policy proposals put forward to date to solve the financial problems of the health system are clearly insufficient to cope with the levels of expenditure predicted for the future.