TABLE 2
FROM:
The Chinese Insurance Market: Estimating its Long-Term Growth and Size
Wei Zheng, Yongdong Liu and Gerry Dickinson
BACK TO ARTICLETable 2. Estimates of China's life insurance premium by market exchange rate method (2006–2020)
| Column | Item | Conservative (GDP growth rate 6%) | Median (GDP growth rate 7.5%) | Optimistic (GDP growth rate 9%) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | 2020 | 2020 | 2020 | ||
| (1) | GDP (billion US$, 1990 prices) | 1,719.4 | 4,120.7 | 5,087.6 | 6,263.0 |
| (2) | GDP per capita (US$, 1990 prices) | 1,333 | 2,822 | 3,485 | 4,290 |
| (3) | Theoretical penetration | 0.86% | 1.01% | 1.09% | 1.18% |
| (4) | Estimated penetration | 1.77% | 2.34% | 2.51% | 2.73% |
| (5) | Comparable premium (billion Yuan, 2005 prices) | 324.43 | 968.3 | 1,282.5 | 1,715.5 |
| (6) | Annual growth rate 2006–2020 | — | 7.6% | 9.6% | 11.7% |
Note: The data of 2005 are the actual figures. The data of 2020 are estimation results. It is assumed that 1 US$=8.19 Yuan. The data are rounded.
Data resources: National Accounts Main Aggregates Database provided by the United Nations; the official website of the National Statistical Bureau; the Sigma database provided by Swiss Re; calculation by authors.
