TABLE 3
FROM:
The Chinese Insurance Market: Estimating its Long-Term Growth and Size
Wei Zheng, Yongdong Liu and Gerry Dickinson
BACK TO ARTICLETable 3. Estimates of China's non-life insurance premium by market exchange rate method (2006–2020)
| Column | Item | Conservative (GDP growth rate 6 %) | Median (GDP growth rate 7.5 %) | Optimistic (GDP growth rate 9 %) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | 2020 | 2020 | 2020 | ||
| (1) | GDP (billion US$, 1990 prices) | 1,719.4 | 4,120.7 | 5,087.6 | 6,263.0 |
| (2) | GDP per capita (US$, 1990 prices) | 1,333 | 2,822 | 3,485 | 4,290 |
| (3) | Theoretical penetration | 1.19% | 1.38% | 1.47% | 1.58% |
| (4) | Calculated penetration | 0.92% | 1.30% | 1.38% | 1.48% |
| (5) | Comparable premium (billion Yuan, 2005 prices) | 168.3 | 535.1 | 702.7 | 927.7 |
| (6) | Annual growth rate 2006–2020 | — | 8.0% | 10.0% | 12.1% |
Note: The data of 2005 are the actual figures. The data of 2020 are estimation results. It is assumed that 1 US$=8.19 Yuan. The data are rounded.
Data resources: National Accounts Main Aggregates Database provided by the United Nations; the official website of the National Statistical Bureau; the Sigma database provided by Swiss Re; calculation by author.
