TABLE 7
FROM:
The Chinese Insurance Market: Estimating its Long-Term Growth and Size
Wei Zheng, Yongdong Liu and Gerry Dickinson
BACK TO ARTICLETable 7. Estimates of growth rate of China's insurance industry (2006–2020) (Billion Yuan)
| Average annual growth rate | Conservative (GDP growth rate 6 %) | Median (GDP growth rate 7.5 %) | Optimistic (GDP growth rate 9 %) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Life | Non-life | Total | Life | Non-life | Total | Life | Non-life | Total | |
| 10.3 % | 8.8 % | 9.8 % | 13.0 % | 10.9 % | 12.3 % | 15.6 % | 12.9 % | 14.8 % | |
| 2005 | |||||||||
| Premium | 3,244 | 1,683 | 4,927 | 3,244 | 1,683 | 4,927 | 3,244 | 1,683 | 4,927 |
| Density | 248 | 129 | 377 | 248 | 129 | 377 | 248 | 129 | 377 |
| Penetration | 1.8% | 0.9% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 2.7% |
| 2010 | |||||||||
| Premium | 5,304 | 2,569 | 7,873 | 5,975 | 2,825 | 8,800 | 6,698 | 3,091 | 9,789 |
| Density | 387 | 188 | 575 | 436 | 206 | 642 | 489 | 226 | 714 |
| Penetration | 2.3% | 1.1% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 3.7% |
| 2015 | |||||||||
| Premium | 8,670 | 3,923 | 12,593 | 11,005 | 4,742 | 15,747 | 13,826 | 5,677 | 19,504 |
| Density | 613 | 277 | 890 | 778 | 335 | 1,113 | 978 | 401 | 1,379 |
| Penetration | 2.8% | 1.3% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 4.8% |
| 2020 | |||||||||
| Premium | 14,174 | 5,989 | 20,162 | 20,269 | 7,960 | 28,229 | 28,544 | 10,427 | 38,970 |
| Density | 971 | 410 | 1,381 | 1,388 | 545 | 1,933 | 1,955 | 714 | 2,669 |
| Penetration | 3.4% | 1.5% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 1.7% | 6.3% |
Note: All data are in the comparable 2005 prices; health insurance and accident insurance are counted as non-life insurance; "Average annual Growth Rate" is the average of the results obtained from market exchange rate method and purchasing power parity method; Density=Premium/Population, Penetration=Premium/GDP; the population data come from the prediction for 2010 and 2020 by the National Population and Family Planning Commission of China.
Data resources: the official website of the National Statistical Bureau; the official website of the National Population and Family Planning Commission of China; the data calculated above; calculation by authors.
