TABLE 8
FROM:
The Chinese Insurance Market: Estimating its Long-Term Growth and Size
Wei Zheng, Yongdong Liu and Gerry Dickinson
BACK TO ARTICLETable 8. Estimates of relative size of China's insurance industry to the world market (Billion US$)
| Average annual growth rate | Conservative (GDP growth rate 6 %) | Median (GDP growth rate 7.5 %) | Optimistic (GDP growth rate 9 %) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Life | Non-life | Total | Life | Non-life | Total | Life | Non-life | Total | |
| 10.3 % | 8.8 % | 9.8 % | 13.0 % | 10.9 % | 12.3 % | 15.6 % | 12.9 % | 14.8 % | |
| 2005 | |||||||||
| China premium | 40 | 21 | 60 | 40 | 21 | 60 | 40 | 21 | 60 |
| World premium | 2,004 | 1,442 | 3,446 | 2,004 | 1,442 | 3,446 | 2,004 | 1,442 | 3,446 |
| China's share | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.7% |
| 2010 | |||||||||
| China premium | 65 | 31 | 96 | 73 | 34 | 108 | 142 | 38 | 120 |
| World premium | 2,847 | 1,799 | 4,646 | 2,847 | 1,799 | 4,646 | 2,847 | 1,799 | 4,646 |
| China's share | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 5.0% | 2.1% | 2.6% |
| 2015 | |||||||||
| China premium | 106 | 48 | 154 | 134 | 58 | 193 | 169 | 69 | 239 |
| World premium | 4,046 | 2,244 | 6,289 | 4,046 | 2,244 | 6,289 | 4,046 | 2,244 | 6,289 |
| China's share | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 3.8% |
| 2020 | |||||||||
| China premium | 173 | 73 | 246 | 247 | 97 | 345 | 348 | 127 | 476 |
| World premium | 5,749 | 2,798 | 8,548 | 5,749 | 2,798 | 8,548 | 5,749 | 2,798 | 8,548 |
| China's share | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 5.6% |
Note: All data are in the comparable 2005 prices; health insurance and accident insurance are counted as non-life insurance; "Average annual Growth Rate" is the average of the results obtained from market exchange rate method and purchasing power parity method.
Data resources: the official website of the National Statistical Bureau; the Sigma database provided by Swiss Re; the Economist Intelligence Unit's report "Foresight 2020"; the United Nations' report "World Population to 2300"; the data calculated above; calculation by author.
