¹University of Edinburgh, UK

Correspondence: Prof L C Thomas, Management School, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland, UK. E-mail: L.Thomas@ed.ac.uk

Received January 1998; Accepted September 1998.

Abstract

Credit scoring systems are based on Operational Research and statistical models which seek to identify who of previous borrowers did or did not default on loans. This study looks at the question when will borrowers default not if they will default. It suggests that some of the reliability modelling approaches may be useful in this context and may help identify who will default as well as when they may default.