Case-Oriented Paper
Journal of the Operational Research Society (2006) 57, 1413–1424. doi:10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602120 Published online 28 December 2005
Modelling treatment effects in the HIV/AIDS epidemic
J D Griffiths1, Z F Lawson1 and J E Williams1
1Cardiff University, South Glamorgan, UK
Correspondence: JD Griffiths, School of Mathematics, Cardiff University, Senghenydd Road, South Glamorgan CF24 4 AG, UK. E-mail: griffiths@cardiff.ac.uk
Received May 2005; Accepted September 2005; Published online 28 December 2005.
Abstract
Advances in recent treatments for HIV/AIDS patients have shown dramatic outcomes in extending the incubation period and AIDS survival time, while also providing significant improvements in the quality of patients' lives. A compartmental model is proposed to analyse the effects of the various treatment regimens which have been introduced. The results produced are in good agreement with routinely collected data relating to levels of HIV/AIDS incidence and prevalence in the UK homosexual population. Some parameter values within the model are obtained from surveys, census results, etc, but others are derived using a maximum likelihood estimation procedure. Finally, the model is used to project levels of incidence and prevalence over the next few years, and to investigate several possible scenarios.
Keywords:
HIV/AIDS, compartmental model, treatment effects, maximum likelihood
