Abstract
This paper presents an approach to the portfolio selection problem based on Sharpe's single-index model and on Fuzzy Sets Theory. In this sense, expert estimations about future Betas of each financial asset have been included in the portfolio selection model denoted as ‘Expert Betas’ and modelled as trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. Value, ambiguity and fuzziness are three basic concepts involved in the model which provide enough information about fuzzy numbers representing ‘Expert Betas’ and that are simple to handle. In order to select an optimal portfolio, a Goal Programming model has been proposed including imprecise investor's aspirations concerning asset's proportions of both, high-and low-risk assets. Semantics of these goals are based on the fuzzy membership of a goal satisfaction set. To illustrate the proposed model a real portfolio selection problem is presented.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Arenas M, Bilbao A and Rodriguez Uría MV (2001). A fuzzy goal programming approach to portfolio selection. Eur J Opl Res 133: 287–297.
Beaver W, Kettler P and Scholes M (1970). The association between market determined and accounting determined risk measures. The Account Rev 45: 654–682.
Blume M (1975). Betas and their regression tendencies. J Finance X (3): 785–795.
Buckley JJ (1987). The fuzzy mathematics of finance. Fuzzy Sets and Systems 21: 257–273.
Buckley JJ, Eslami E and Feuring T (2002). Fuzzy Mathematics in Economics and Engineering. Physic-Verlang, Springer: New York.
Charnes A and Cooper WW (1961). Management Models and Industrial Applications of Linear Programming, Vol. I. Wiley: New York.
Connor G and Korajczyk RA (1995). The arbitrage pricing theory and multifactor models of asset returns. In: Jarrow R et al (eds). Handbook in OR MS, North Holland: Amsterdam, Vol. 9, pp 87–143.
Delgado M, Vila MA and Voxman W (1998a). On a canonical representation of fuzzy numbers. Fuzzy Sets and Systems 93: 125–135.
Delgado M, Vila MA and Voxman W (1998b). A fuzziness measure for fuzzy numbers: applications. Fuzzy Sets and Systems 94: 205–216.
Dubois D and Prade H (2000). Fundamentals of Fuzzy Sets. Kluwer Academic Publishers: Massachusetts.
Elton EJ and Gruber MJ (1973). Estimating the dependence structure of share prices-implications for portfolio selection. The J Finance 28: 1203–1233.
Elton EJ and Gruber MJ (1995). Modern Portfolio Theory and Investment Analysis. John Wiley & Sons, Inc.: New York.
Ignizio JP (1976). Goal Programming and Extensions. Lexinton Books: Massachusetts.
Kaufmann A and Gupta MM (1985). Introduction to Fuzzy Arithmetic. Van Nostrand Reinhold: New York.
Kuchta D (2000). Fuzzy capital budgeting. Fuzzy Sets and Systems 111: 367–385.
Lee SM and Chesser DL (1980). Goal programming for portfolio selection. The J Portfolio Mngt 6: 22–26.
Lee SM and Lerro AJ (1973). Optimizing the portfolio selection for mutual funds. The J Finance XXVIII (5): 1087–1101.
Li Calzi M (1990). Towards a general setting for the fuzzy mathematics of finance. Fuzzy Sets and Systems 35: 265–280.
Markowitz HM (1952). Portfolio selection. The Journal of Finance 7 (1): 77–91.
Markowitz HM (1959). Portfolio Selection: Efficient Diversification of Investments. John Wiley: New York.
Markowitz HM and Perold AF (1981). Portfolio analysis with factors and scenarios. The J Finance XXXVI (14): 871–877.
Molina Luque J (2000). Toma de decisiones con criterios múltiples en variable continua y entera: implementación computacional y aplicación a la economía. Tesis Doctoral, Universidad de Málaga.
Ramaswamy S (1998). Portfolio selection using fuzzy decision theory. Bank for International Settlements. Working Paper 1020-0959-59, Basle, Switzerland.
Rosenberg B and Guy J (1976). Prediction of Beta from investment fundamentals. Financial Analysts Journal 32 (3) (Part I): 60–72 and Part II: 62–70.
Romero C (1991). Handbook of Critical Issues in Goal Programming. Pergamon Press: Oxford.
Sakawa M, Nishizaki I and Uemura Y (2001). Fuzzy programming and profit and cost allocation for a production and transportation problem. Eur J Opl Res 131: 1–15.
Sharpe WF (1963). A simplified model for portfolio analysis. Mngt Sci January: 277–293.
Sharpe WF (1970). Portfolio Theory and Capital Markets. McGraw-Hill: New York.
Tanaka H and Guo P (1999). Portfolio selection based on upper and lower exponential possibility distributions. Eur J Opl Res 114: 115–126.
Vasicek O (1973). A note on using cross-sectional information in bayesian Estimation of security beta. Journal of Finance VIII (5): 1233–1239.
Zimmerman HJ (1978). Fuzzy programming and linear programming with several objective functions. Fuzzy Sets and Systems 2: 45–55.
Acknowledgements
We are grateful and thank the referees and the editor for the helpful comments. This research has been supported by project MTM2004-07478 of the Spanish Education and Science Ministry. This work has been developed with the inestimable help of the PhD student Carlos Mallo.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Bilbao, A., Arenas, M., Jiménez, M. et al. An extension of Sharpe's single-index model: portfolio selection with expert betas. J Oper Res Soc 57, 1442–1451 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602133
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602133