Special Issue Paper

Journal of the Operational Research Society (2008) 59, 473–481. doi:10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602312 Published online 18 October 2006

Classification for forecasting and stock control: a case study

J E Boylan1, A A Syntetos2 and G C Karakostas3

  1. 1Buckinghamshire Chilterns University College, Buckinghamshire, UK
  2. 2University of Salford, Salford, UK
  3. 3Eurometal SA, Greece

Correspondence: JE Boylan, Buckinghamshire Business School, Buckinghamshire Chilterns University College, Chalfont St Giles, Buckinghamshire, HP8 4AD, UK. E-mail: john.boylan@bcuc.ac.uk

Received October 2005; Accepted July 2006; Published online 18 October 2006.

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Abstract

Different stock keeping units (SKUs) are associated with different underlying demand structures, which in turn require different methods for forecasting and stock control. Consequently, there is a need to categorize SKUs and apply the most appropriate methods in each category. The way this task is performed has significant implications in terms of stock and customer satisfaction. Therefore, categorization rules constitute a vital element of intelligent inventory management systems. Very little work has been conducted in this area and, from the limited research to date, it is not clear how managers should classify demand patterns for forecasting and inventory management. A previous research project was concerned with the development of a theoretically coherent demand categorization scheme for forecasting only. In this paper, the stock control implications of such an approach are assessed by experimentation on an inventory system developed by a UK-based software manufacturer. The experimental database consists of the individual demand histories of almost 16 000 SKUs. The empirical results from this study demonstrate considerable scope for improving real-world systems.

Keywords:

categorization, forecasting, inventory, intermittent demand, case study

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