Abstract
This paper proposes a tool for multi-criteria decision aid to be referred to as a Reasoning Map. It is motivated by a desire to provide an integrated approach to problem structuring and evaluation, and in particular, to make the transition between these two processes a natural and seamless progression. The approach has two phases. In the first one, the building of a Reasoning Map supports problem structuring, capturing a decision maker's reasoning as a network of means and ends concepts. In the second phase, this map is enhanced, employing a user-defined qualitative scale to measure both performances of decision options and strengths of influence for each means–end link. This latter phase supports the decision maker in evaluating the positive and negative impacts of an action through synthesis of the qualitative information. A case study, which investigates the use of the method in practice, is also presented.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Ackermann F and Belton V (1999) Mixing methods: Balancing equivocality with precision. Working Paper 99/4, Department of Management Science, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, UK.
Ackermann F and Eden C (2004). Using causal mapping—individual and group, traditional and new. In: Pidd M. (ed). Systems Modelling—Theory and Practice. Wiley: Chichester, pp. 127–145.
Axelrod R (ed) (1976). Structure of Decision: The Cognitive Maps of Political Elites. Princeton University Press: Princeton.
Bana e Costa CA, Ensslin L, Corrêa EC and Vansnick JC (1999). Decision Support Systems in action: Integrated application in a multi-criteria decision aid process. Eur J Opl Res 113: 315–335.
Belton V (1985). The use of a simple multiple criteria model to assist in selection from a shortlist. J Opl Res Soc 36: 265–274.
Belton V, Ackermann F and Shepherd I (1997). Integrated support from problem structuring through to alternative evaluation using COPE and V·I·S·A. J Multi-Criteria Decis Anal 6: 115–130.
Belton V and Stewart T (2002). Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis: An Integrated Approach. Kluwer: Dordrecht.
Bryson JM, Ackermann F, Eden C and Finn CB (2004). Visible Thinking: Unlocking Causal Mapping for Practical Business Results. Wiley: Chichester.
Budescu DV and Wallsten TS (1985). Consistency in interpretation of probabilistic phrases. Org Behav Hum Decis Process 36: 391–405.
Buss AR (1978). Causes and reasons in attribute theory: A conceptual critique. J Pers Soc Psychol 36: 1311–1321.
Chen L-S and Cheng H-S (2005). Selecting IS personnel use fuzzy GDSS based on metric distance method. Eur J Opl Res 160: 803–820.
Cossette P and Audet M (1992). Mapping of an idiosyncratic schema. J Mngt Stud 29: 325–348.
Domingo-Ferrer J and Torra V (2003). Median based aggregation operators for prototype construction in ordinal scales. Int J Intell Syst 18: 633–655.
Eden C (2004). Analyzing cognitive maps to help structure issues or problems. Eur J Opl Res 159: 673–686.
Eden C and Ackermann F (1998). Analysing and comparing idiographic causal maps. In: Eden C and Spender JC (eds). Managerial and Organizational Cognition. Sage: London, pp. 192–209.
Ensslin L, Dutra A and Ensslin SR (2000a). MCDA: A constructivist approach to the management of human resources at a governmental agency. Intl Trans Op Res 7: 79–100.
Ensslin L, Montibeller G and Lima MVA (2000b). Constructing and implementing a DSS to help evaluate perceived risk of accounts receivable. In: Haimes YY and Steuer RE (eds). Research and Practice in Multiple Criteria Decision Making. Springer: Berlin, pp. 248–259.
Figueira J, Greco S and Ehrgott M (2005). Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis—State of the Art Surveys. Springer: New York.
Godo L and Torra V (2000). On aggregation operators for ordinal qualitative information. IEEE Trans Fuzzy Syst 8: 143–154.
Goodwin P and Wright G (2004). Decision Analysis for Management Judgement, 3rd edition. Wiley: Chichester.
Gordon SE and Gill RT (1992). Knowledge acquisition with question probes and conceptual graph structures. In: Lauer TW, Peacock EG and Graesser AC (eds). Questions and Information Systems. Lawrence Erlbaum: Hillsdale, pp. 29–46.
Gutman J (1982). A means–end chain model based on consumer categorization processes. J Marketing 46: 60–72.
Heckerman D and Shachter R (1995). Decision-theoretic foundations for causal reasoning. J Artif Intell Res 3: 405–430.
Herrera F and Herrera-Viedma E (2000). Linguistic decision analysis: Steps for solving decision problems under linguistic information. Fuzzy Sets Syst 115: 67–82.
Huff AS and Jenkins M (eds) (2002). Mapping Strategic Knowledge. Sage: London.
Huizingh EKRE and Vrolijk HCJ (1997). A comparison of verbal and numerical judgements in the Analytic Hierarchy Process. Org Behav Hum Decis Process 70: 237–247.
Keeney RL (1992). Value-Focused Thinking: A Path to Creative Decision-making. Harvard University Press: Cambridge.
Kosko B (1986). Fuzzy cognitive maps. Int J Man-Machines Stud 25: 65–75.
Kosko B (1992). Neural Networks and Fuzzy Sets. Prentice-Hall: Englewood Cliffs.
Larichev OI (1992). Cognitive validity in design of decision-aiding techniques. J Multi-Criteria Decis Anal 1: 127–138.
Marchant T (1999). Cognitive maps and fuzzy implications. Eur J Opl Res 114: 626–637.
Merkhofer MW (1990). Using influence diagrams in multi-attribute utility analysis—improving effectiveness through improving communication. In: Olivier RM and Smith JQ (eds). Influence Diagrams, Belief Nets and Decision Analysis. Wiley: Chichester, pp. 297–317.
Mingers J (1997). Multi-paradigm multimethodology. In: Mingers J and Gill A (eds). Multimethodology. Wiley: Chichester, pp. 1–20.
Montibeller G (2000). Reasoning maps for decision aiding. PhD Dissertation, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Department of Production Engineering, Brazil (in cooperation with the Department of Management Science, University of Strathclyde, Scotland) (in Portuguese)..
Montibeller G and Belton V (2006). Causal maps and the evaluation of options—a review. J Opl Res Soc 57: 771–779.
Montibeller G, Belton V and Lima MV (2006). Supporting factoring transactions in Brazil using reasoning maps: A language-based DSS for evaluating accounts receivable. Decis Support Syst, doi: 10.1016/j.dss.2004.11.011.
Nadkarni S and Shenoy PP (2001). A Bayesian network approach to making inferences in causal maps. Eur J Opl Res 128: 479–498.
Nadkarni S and Shenoy PP (2004). A causal mapping approach to constructing Bayesian networks. Decis Support Syst 38: 259–281.
Rosenhead J and Mingers J (eds) (2001). Rational Analysis for a Problematic World Revisited. Wiley: Chichester.
Roy B (1993). Decision science or decision-aid science? Eur J Opl Res 66: 184–203.
Schon DA (1984). The Reflective Practitioner: How Professionals Think in Action. Basic Books: New York.
Slovic P (1995). The construction of preference. Am Psychol 50: 364–371.
Spyridakos A, Siskos Y, Yannacopoulos D and Skouris A (1991). Multicriteria job evaluation for large organizations. Eur J Opl Res 130: 357–387.
Sterman JD (2000). Business Dynamics. Irwin McGraw-Hill: Boston.
Watson SR and Buede DM (1987). Decision Synthesis. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge.
Wellman MP (1994). Inference in cognitive maps. Math Comput Simulation 36: 137–148.
Yager RR (1995). An approach to ordinal decision making. Int J Approx Reason 12: 237–261.
Yager RR (1998). Fusion of ordinal information using weighted median aggregation. Int J Approx Reason 18: 35–52.
Zhang W, Chen S and Bezdek JC (1989). Pool2: A generic system for cognitive map development and decision analysis. IEEE Trans Syst Man Cybernet 19: 31–39.
Acknowledgements
This work was developed when the first author was associated with the Department of Management Science, University of Strathclyde. The initial phase of this research was supported by a grant from the Capes foundation.We are thankful to Carlos Bana e Costa, for the insightful idea that sparkled this research; to the HR consultant Cristianne Sá Bez, who devoted time and effort in the case study, and to two anonymous referees for their comments on our draft.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Montibeller, G., Belton, V., Ackermann, F. et al. Reasoning maps for decision aid: an integrated approach for problem-structuring and multi-criteria evaluation. J Oper Res Soc 59, 575–589 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602347
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602347