1. ¹Wessex Institute for Health Research and Development, School of Medicine, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
2. ²University of Warwick, Coventry, UK
3. ³Public Health Sciences and Medical Statistics, School of Medicine, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK

Correspondence: K Cooper, Wessex Institute of Health Research and Development, School of Medicine, University of Southampton, Southampton, SO16 7PX, UK. E-mail: kc@soton.ac.uk

Received September 2006; Accepted May 2007; Published online 1 August 2007.

Abstract

A discrete event simulation model of the patient pathways in the treatment of coronary heart disease (CHD) was used to quantify the health gains and costs associated with increasing secondary prevention drugs prescription for patients with CHD based on the level recommended in the National Service Framework for the UK. A Gompertz distribution was sampled for time to failure (death or non-fatal heart attack). The time to failure was modified in relation to the reduced risk of failure for those on the relevant drugs. The results from the model were validated against national data. Increasing the levels of prescription of secondary prevention drugs to those patients with CHD might prevent 100 deaths per million population per year and cost an additional £4 million per million population per year. With cost per life year saved of £5520, this appears good value for money compared with other health technologies.