Theoretical Paper

Journal of the Operational Research Society (2009) 60, 843–858; doi:10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602627; published online 4 June 2008

Real R&D options and optimal activation of two-dimensional random controls

S H Martzoukos1

1University of Cyprus, Nicosia, Cyprus

Correspondence: SH Martzoukos, Department of Public and Business Administration, University of Cyprus, PO Box 20537, CY 1678 Nicosia, Cyprus. E-mail: baspiros@ucy.ac.cy

Received June 2007; Accepted March 2008; Published online 4 June 2008.

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Abstract

We value investments under uncertainty with embedded optional costly controls (impulse-type with uncertain outcome) that capture managerial intervention for value enhancement and/or information acquisition (exploration, R&D, advertising, marketing research, etc). Implementing real option models but neglecting such embedded managerial actions can severely underestimate investment opportunities and lead to erroneous investment decisions. Optimal decisions are solutions to a maximization problem where the trade-off between the control's cost and the value added by such actions is explicitly taken into consideration. In this paper, we generalize such a methodology from one dealing with the special case of actions affecting only one state-variable, to one with actions that affect several. Asset values follow geometric Brownian motion or jump-diffusion processes with multiple generating sources of jumps. The Markov-chain numerical methodology we provide can handle sequential controls. Although we report the results with open-loop policies, the approach can be readily extended to accommodate dependency among the controls.

Keywords:

investments, cost benefit analysis, research, stochastic processes

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