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Use of modelling to inform public health policy: a case study on the blood-borne transmission of variant-CJD

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Journal of the Operational Research Society

Abstract

Since the identification of variant Creutzfeldt–Jacob Disease in the late 1980s, the possibility that this disease might be passed on via blood transfusion has presented challenging policy questions for Government and blood services in the UK. This paper discusses the use of mathematical modelling to inform policy in this area of health protection. We focus on the use of a relatively simple analytical model to explore how many such infections might eventually be expected to result in clinical cases under a range of alternative scenarios of interest to policy, and on the potential impact of possible additional counter measures. We comment on the value of triangulating between findings generated using distinct modelling approaches and observational data.

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Acknowledgements

This is an independent report commissioned and funded by the Policy Research Programme in the Department of Health. The views expressed are not necessarily those of the Department.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. University College London, London, UK

    S Crowe & M Utley

  2. Department of Health, Health Protection Analytical Team, London, UK

    P Bennett & M Daraktchiev

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  1. S Crowe
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  2. P Bennett
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  3. M Daraktchiev
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  4. M Utley
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Crowe, S., Bennett, P., Daraktchiev, M. et al. Use of modelling to inform public health policy: a case study on the blood-borne transmission of variant-CJD. J Oper Res Soc 65, 269–277 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1057/jors.2013.26

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/jors.2013.26

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