1. ¹Larrainzar Consulting Solutions Ltd, Salisbury, Wiltshire, UK
2. ²Defence Science and Technology Laboratories, Salisbury, Wiltshire, UK

Correspondence: J Medhurst, 1 The Maples, Devizes Rd, Salisbury, Wilts, SP2 7LL, UK. E-mail: john@larrainzar.co.uk

Received February 2007; Accepted March 2008; Published online 14 May 2008.

Abstract

This paper describes a novel experimental method for determining the value of different types of information to military decision makers. The experimental method used a simple scenario and a set of serials constructed from cards, each presenting a single piece of information and presented sequentially. Each of a number of pairs of players were taken through the scenario and asked to judge when they would make each of a pair of escalating responses to the situation. The data proved well suited to analysis using a probit model and is consistent with the hypothesis of a Bayesian decision mechanism with normally distributed 'action points'. The methodology allowed the determination of weights for each of a number of different classes of information, together with estimates of the human and situational elements of variation, including estimates of the 'prior belief' of the different pairs of players.