1. ^aSchool of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Cornell University, Hollister Hall, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA
2. ^bSandia National Laboratories, P.O. Box 5800, MS 1138, Albuquerque, NM 87185–1138, USA.

Correspondence: Linda Nozick, E-mail: lkn3@cornell.edu

Abstract

US containerised freight traffic through US seaports is growing rapidly. Given this growth rate, it is important to have an accurate understanding of the flow of these goods both within the United States and to and from foreign countries, so that investments in infrastructure can be made consistent with the needs generated by this traffic. This paper develops an optimisation model to estimate an origin-destination table for the number of containers shipped from aggregations of Bureau of Economic Analysis economic areas in the United States to foreign countries. To do this, we synthesise data from various sources with a gravity model for the demand of container traffic. A sensitivity analysis on the estimated origin-destination table shows it is robust to changes in the gravity model parameter. The model also pays explicit attention to empty containers resulting from the significant US trade imbalance, and therefore estimates flows for both full and empty containers.