Faldo's folly or Monty's Carlo

Abstract

The Ryder Cup is arguably the most prestigious and most exciting golf tournament in the World. It is a team event contested once every 2 years between 12 golfers from Europe and 12 golfers from the United States of America. For the 12 singles matches on the final Sunday, each captain selects the order in which his players tee off. In 2008, after an eventual US victory, the sporting press was hugely critical of Nick Faldo's (the European captain) slate selection. This article looks to explore the justification of such criticism. First, existing academic results are reviewed and, where necessary, updated for 2008. Second, using Monte Carlo simulation, we consider the scheduling of players who react differently under pressure. This simple sporting example illustrates how Monte Carlo simulation can be used to analyse a range of potential scenarios enabling better, more informed decisions. Within a business context, where a winning outcome is essential, non-OR practitioners must understand how OR techniques can be used to make better, more informed decisions. This article concludes by discussing how the Ryder Cup model, together with a related example analysing interdependent project risks, was successfully used within a consultancy environment to introduce non-OR practitioners to the theory behind and the potential of Monte Carlo simulation.