¹Rowan University

Abstract

This article discusses the role of momentum in the primaries and the general election. The Republican nomination contest was consistent with the literature on momentum. As voters updated their knowledge of the candidates and their beliefs regarding the likelihood of victory, they switched their preferences to McCain, providing him with the surge that led him to victory. In the Democratic contest, no such momentum ever occurred. I will use empirical data to demonstrate that, throughout the entire process, the primary results were determined by the demographics of the state and candidate strategies. Even at the end, there was no rallying effect. In the general election, no momentum occurred until after the convention. Before then, the polls moved as a result of external shocks, but quickly reverted to equilibrium. I will explore the role of polarization, identity politics, and the early and intensive media coverage of the campaign in fixing voter opinions early in a manner that stifled momentum.