¹Rowan University

Abstract

The 2008 presidential election can be said to suffer from an audacity of analysis, a rush to place the Barack Obama presidency in historical perspective before the Obama presidency actually makes history. Some historical facts are irrefutable, such as the election of the first African-American president and the smashing of campaign finance records. But other aspects of the 2008 election remain to be proven, such as whether a permanent Democratic majority has emerged and an electoral realignment has taken place. Another audacious aspect of the discussion of this election has been the crediting of a permanent shift in electoral and governing coalitions to the strategic efforts of a presidential candidate, that is, to link the presidency to structural changes in the vote and the formation of a new Democratic Party coalition. This paper identifies the questions that must be answered to prove such conclusions, and cautiously tenders some answers. First, what indications are there that the Obama coalition is a sustainable coalition or a permanent shift in the vote? Second, what might be the role of a presidential candidate and a sitting president in building and maintaining a majority party coalition?