^aDepartment of Criminal Justice, Temple University, Gladfelter Hall, 1115 W Berks Street, Philadelphia, PA 19122, U.S.A.

Correspondence: Jerry H. Ratcliffe, E-mail: jhr@temple.edu

Abstract

Research from property crime studies has identified a near-repeat phenomenon, where the risk of repeat burglary victimization is transmitted from a burgled location to nearby locations for a limited amount of time. This article explores the potential for near-repeat patterns to exist in another crime type, specifically the incidence of shootings. Using new tools developed to quantify the spatio-temporal patterns of near-repeats, a study in Philadelphia, U.S.A. finds that there are elevated patterns of near-repeat shootings within 2 weeks and one city block of previous incidents. The elevated risk of a shooting during this period is found to be 33 per cent greater than expected. It is speculated that possible reasons include coercion, retaliation and escalation. Given that the study takes place against the backdrop of a police operation to mitigate retaliatory shootings, the potential for using this information to influence crime prevention policy is discussed.