Tourism Hospitality Research - Table 3 for article: Forecasting and evaluating the tourist hotel industry performance in Taiwan based on Grey theory

FROM:

Forecasting and evaluating the tourist hotel industry performance in Taiwan based on Grey theory

Wann-Yih Wu, Shih-Wen Hsiao and Cheng-Hung Tsai

	Actual output value (NT$)	GM model 1		GM model 2		Regression model 3
		Total		4-point		Time series
Year		Forecasted output value	Residual error %	Forecasted output value	Residual error %	Forecasted output value	Residual error %
1992	21,465,831,998
1993	22,234,633,523	27,140,759,132	22.07	22,303,251,745	0.42	25,678,402,798	15.49
1994	25,750,153,632	27,881,043,038	8.28	25,522,235,777	1.38	26,698,452,031	3.68
1995	29,184,689,732	28,641,518,724	1.86	29,205,809,381	0.42	27,718,501,263	5.02
1996	31,053,639,916	29,422,736,937	5.25	33,421,025,848	1.78	28,738,550,496	7.46
1997	33,641,675,517	30,225,263,444	10.16	34,305,310,531	0.30	29,758,599,728	11.54
1998	33,642,930,221	31,049,679,443	7.71	36,022,076,727	0.29	30,778,648,960	8.51
1999	34,108,824,585	31,896,581,988	6.49	35,414,710,424	0.00	31,798,698,193	6.77
2000	34,137,942,567	32,766,584,414	4.02	34,268,598,742	0.33	32,818,747,425	3.86
2001	34,167,060,549	33,660,316,788	1.48	34,460,034,448	1.54	33,838,796,658	0.96
2002	33,689,914,911	34,578,426,361	2.64	34,196,217,859	4.60	34,858,845,890	3.47
2003	30,994,491,154	35,521,578,039	14.61	33,553,714,009	0.37	35,878,895,122	15.76
2004	35,051,785,075	36,490,454,864	4.10	29,931,108,225	—	36,898,944,355	5.27
2005	38,917,856,693	37,485,758,507	3.68	34,677,915,626	—	37,918,993,587	2.57
2006	(Forecast)	38,508,209,780		43,621,068,618		38,939,042,820

The grades of forecasting accuracy
		GM model 1		GM model 2		Time series model 3
Average residual error		Useful	7.10%	Useful	1.04%	Residual error	6.95%
Accuracy rate			92.90%		98.96%	Accuracy rate	93.05%

C		Just the mark	0.52	Good	0.29	R ²	0.72
P			0.85		0.97	²	0.70